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A mere two months prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while Unai Emery berated him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or the reason for Villa's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. When the in-form star curled home his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their opening six games, now sit a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Hopefuls?

This is a rather hard query to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, while the positive results have accumulated.

According to the data, twice all season have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have put together 10 in a row, the Villans look curiously susceptible – but at the moment the margins are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach appears to be to trade blows with rivals and wait for Rogers to bail them out with some precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again against United.

His opener stemmed from a superb shot, curled just inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists another reality in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.

• The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
• The winger could transform into the player he was during his peak.
• The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Savoring the Moment

However, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.

The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. As the hero faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.