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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."